Yr2023, Post COVID, Amidst Ukraine War - Whats shaping Western, MidEast, India and Asia

 Its been a while since I blogged. We are now in March 2023, last year we effectively ended Covid in its most virulent shape and form while we deal now with old flu viruses like H3N2 in India and similar flu viruses in Australia. World has had to deal with a Major war when Ukraine was invaded by Russia with both sides blaming each other for triggering the confrontation. Ukraine was tipped into it by NATO promising membership while an assertive Russia decided to call the bluff and attack. Now a real war has started with US and a reluctant Europe supporting Ukraine in its battle. Likely to push the US tax payers to further fund another conflict just as they finished in Middle East with the destruction of Iraq, Syria and resoundly defeated by Taliban in Afghanistan. US as a bully has created just messes and more messes every where it has set foot in the name of democracy, their bad karmas piling up while internally they remain more divided as a nation between the Right the increasingly Woke Leftists. China and India play a calm sideline view of this unfolding mess. A defeated Russia will weaken China's power play standing up to West so you can see that bonhomie continuing while India has used the situation to manage its Oil thirst well while still managing to get the G20 presidency. Well played. How they managed the optics while still ensuring their national interests are served is amazing. Mr Jaishankar has been outstanding and has created a image that was hard for his predecessor and seems to be on equal standing if not exceeding Namo's image with the West, Mid East and the East.     

That aside, what evolving now is an increasingly Inflationary trend that is triggering a run on banks like SVB and possible collapse of some of the weaker nations and banking systems globally. Nations that had accumulated unpayable debt in the past like - Srilanka, Pakistan and many smaller pacific nations have got into a debt trap. Likely to spill into the broader population soon as confidence in the economies globally slides.This trend will increase the weakness of Financial Institutions in US and World over while countries like India resort to non Dollar denominated trade to work around the challenge while trading oil with Russia. As more and more countries figure out alternatives to non swift trading avenues, hegemony of dollar will increasingly be questioned. Trust in $ and buyers of $ denominated debt may be hard to find in the future. 

There is also a change in the anvil in West Asia, as of yesterday what wouldnt have been thought as possible Iran and Saudi Arabia have come to an agreement thanks a deal brokered not by US but by China the emerging Super power which means the influence of US is fast waning while China and India start gearing up to the next race to the top as the next 2 challengers. The clock to WW3 is well and truly ticking but it will not happen while US is still at the top but once the power really starts waning. Test bed will be Taiwan undoubtedly and therein is the next battlefield.

Till my next musings..