Break time Blog - Vacation's rock on stocks..

Its time for another post - I am relaxing now taking a long deserved break from office. I am using this time to catch up on some reading and spending good time with my sons. Just back from a immunization visit to the doc for the younger one, so my wife is a bit hassled with his crying.

This week I had a chance to seriously look at the Discounted Cash flow model to analyse the value calculations for some of the stocks I own.Noticed some of my realty stocks were quoting near the 2 stage DCF value , while some IT stocks like TCS were quoting 20 times the DCF value in  the current market. Obviously i havent discounted the Long term Debt levels of the Realty companies in a few cases while doing the calculation or else the intrinsic value would have been far lower. Noticed not many of my current stocks were bought at near or no safety to intrinsic value, even one's like LUPIN were bought at near or above the intrinsic value which is a risk but given most of them are momentum stocks with good growth projection i dont anticipate this to be serious to offload at the moment.. However I do see the PE levels currently for most of these stocks hitting the upper circuit and perhaps will plan to offload them before Jan-March timeline. The NIFTY PE levels are currently ~ 21, I dont see any major trigger to sustain rally though there is bound to be some optimism around Diwali timeline before the markets cool off during Nov-Dec timeline.

Till next time - ciao!